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Bake has a built a sizable reputation over the years for his work in state government and the private sector. In a climate of anti-incumbency, Baker has a favorable chance of defeating Patrick in November. Much of the public's frustration is aimed at Democrats in power, who have seemed unable to effectively deal with the economic crisis. Given that Massachusetts voters elected Republican Scott Brown a US senator are signs that a conservative wave could give Baker a victory.
Baker still has to, however, compete in a state which is overwhelmingly liberal and Democratic. Most state residents are registered as Democrats. Patrick has the advantage of the incumbency, being that voters might not want to get rid of an experienced politician in such times. Baker also has to contend with the possibility that independent Tim Cahill could take votes away from him. If Baker does win, it will be a very narrow win.
Information obtained from Wikipedia & CharlieBaker2010.com
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